June 2023
Monthly highlights :
— The US dance between appeasement and setting off the PRC by showing resistance keeps going as we learn that CIA Director, William Burns, secretly traveled to Beijing where he met with Chinese intelligence counterparts and emphasized the importance of maintaining open lines of communication in intelligence channels," a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Friday. [1] All of this while the downplaying the fact that Cuba is now hosting a spy station for the PRC, reviving the cold war tension China so often like to accuse the US of entertaining.[2] [3]
Anthony Blinken finally managed to get his visit in China, after months of postponing, where he was soberly welcomed on the tarmac of the airport[4] and allowed to have a 30 minutes talk with Xi that he decribed being "candid, substantive, and constructive." [5][6] But can really be summarized by an agreement to keep communication channels open. The meeting barely made it to Chinese news [7] and was immediately followed by President Biden calling Xi a dictator[8], which in turn caused the CCP to protest, yet not at fiercely as one could have expected [9], and to top it all off, is backed by Blinken[10].
With “de-risking” becoming the hypest buzzword, Raytheon’s boss, one of US main defense contractor, says the US relies too much on China to decouple and that building new supply chains would take too long. Although the real worry appears to be the civilian business of Raytheon. [11] Some kind of call for appeasement as we are reminded that the spy balloon contained US-made pieces of technology that enabled the PRC to spy on the US. [12] Ballon that apparently didn’t have time to gather any intelligence thanks to a swift reaction [13].
Far from the appeasement route, the US is trying to consolidate the indo-pacific front by rolling out the red carpet for PM Modi as Biden keeps quiet on Modi’s human right infringement in India, which is slipping into some kind of Hindu-nationalist authoritarianism. [13] The aim is to pull Modi and support India as bulwark against China. India kicked the last Chinese journalist in India at the end of the month after China kicked out the last Indian journalist of China earlier in the month.[14][15]
It could be that some part of the administration accepted the inevitability of the conflict and that we’re seeing performative diplomacy aimed at proving future US administrations that everything was attempted to prevent conflict.
— China’s economy is not doing great as 11.6m graduates face a jobs market with no jobs. Youth unemployment in China hit a record high in April, with 20.4% of 16- to 24-year-old jobseekers unable to find work. [1] Xi wants to boost domestic economy through the “dual-circulation” policy, aiming to be more resistant against expected western sanctions when the PRC decides to invade Taiwan, but also displaying a schizophrenic attitude toward foreign direct investment. Being very agressive to attract FDIs while also being unprecedentedly agressive in the repression of foreign firms in China[2], which results in foreign firms being more and more spooked about their investments in China [3] all of this as Bob Pickard, former AIIB official resigns and is advised to flee China to avoid a “Michael’s fate” condemning the Chinese investment bank for mainly serving the interests of the CCP and acting under its influence. [4][5]
Xi’s dual-circulation policy mainly aims at consolidating PRC’s ultra nationalism, warning Chinese companies to prepare for “worst-case and extreme scenarios”, to withstand “high winds and waves and even perilous storms”. Adding that “the purpose of building a large domestic circulation is to ensure that the nation’s economy can continue to operate normally [even] under extreme circumstances, that is not contradictory to participating in international economic circulation”. Focusing on Inner Mongolia, a major energy, mineral and agricultural producer, and an ecological barrier against sandstorms on Beijing, he stressed that the region should take an active part in the joint development of the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. Xi also told the region’s officials to “unswervingly promote” the policy to teach more subjects in Mandarin with standard textbooks issued by Beijing, to “ensure that young people of all ethnic groups can master and use the national common language”.
A vision that isn’t helped by the crashing fantasy of de-dollarization [6] and the sliding yuan [7]. But the CCP insist everything is fine, as them banning 4.7 million finance writer Wu Xiaobo for criticizing CCP’s policy [8][9]
— The month of June is always special in China and censorship campaigns on Chinese social media have started to prevent discussions of Tiananmen. Weibo censored “subjects lined up in file”, a phrase alluding to the famous Tank Man picture. I sent a post with the exact phrase on Weibo and it didn’t show up in search result.
Other interesting censored keywords include: “Democracy”, “Tank”, “That year” and “the turn between spring and summer”. Only posts from official accounts are shown in search. [1]
— Regarding Taiwan now, sociologist scholar Li Yi argued that if 140 million in China die for the reunification of Taiwan, that matters little. "Many Chinese are already prepared, ...... with a little education, young people will agree that for the sake of unification 140 million can die." [1]
On that matter 62% of Europeans think their countries should remain neutral in a US China war over Taiwan, ECFR polling shows. [2][3] Although it’d mean they’d rather go back to the stone age than helping a friendly democracy. Thankfully some European leaders are paving the way for a deeper collaboration with Taiwan as Pavel Czech meets TW MFA Joseph Wu. [4] Wu also met with EU MP Nicola Beer in Brussels [5].
As all eyes are focused on PRC’s views on Taiwan, Xi thought that it’d be good to remind that China’s irredentist drive doesn’t stop there and reminded the “unresolved” status of the Senkaku islands and hinted at the ancient history between China and Ryukyu (Okinawa). [6]
Staying in Japan, France blocked the opening of a NATO liaison office there that was proposed earlier, as Macron looks at appeasing China for economic purpose and dismisses the criticism as the office is apparentyl “just a small issue”.[7] Macron was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria who went back over his diplomatic blunder in Beijing. Macron insisted on France’s alliance with the US and clarified his “autonomy” point, but failed to address significantly his remarks about Taiwan and just noted that “France is in favor of the status quo”. [8]
On the plus side, Japan, Europe and the US are harmonizing their standards for better interoperability, boost Japanese defense sector and lower maintenance costs.[9] In South Korea, environmental impact studies clears the ground for THAAD, dismissing China’s protests.[10]
UK Security minister Tom Tugendhat meets with Audrey Tang about mutual security interests, a very rare high level meeting that is welcomed for those who wish to see Taiwan integrated in the international stage [11]. It’s worth to note Cleverly was criticized by a MP for not considering bringing Tugendhat, who is banned from entering China since 2021, with him on a visit there.[12]
— Former ByteDance Executive Claims Chinese Communist Party Accessed TikTok’s Hong Kong User Data ; Allegation is made in suit against TikTok parent company; ByteDance says it vigorously opposes the claim. [1][2] ByteDance Ordered 1B NVidia AI chips [3]
— China has been supporting Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region, has confirmed that the Russian military has received the first batch of Chinese-made armored vehicles.
Kadyrov has released footage showing “new vehicles purchased for Chechen units participating in the Special Military Operation [war in Ukraine].”[1] Iranian drones have been supplied with Chinese made parts (manufactured in 2023) and shipped to Russia to bomb Ukraine. [2]
Despite this, Europe wants to test China’s good faith “one last time” by removing 5 chinese firms from a sanction list of industrial involved in supplying Russia as they claim China would “ensure those businesses stop reselling hi-tech goods made in Europe that are flowing to Russia’s war machine.”.[3]
A claim China switfly dismissed as Beijing Ambassador Fu Cong says “did not commit [to] anything … that’s the bottom line”.[4]
Fu also claimed that China doesn’t see why not about backing Ukraine’s 91 borders. Fu says China’s position has always been very clear about Ukraine despite refusing to condemn Russian invasion, arming Russia and proposing phony “peace deals” in favor of Russia. [4bis]
On the German side, Scholz proves once again Germany’s addiction to China by meeting again with Chinese officials from a large delegation coming to Berlin [5]. Germany is obsessed by securing its car businesses in China, something they are fighting France about as the EV war rages on [6] and Chinese car market slowly pushes out foreign carmakers out [7].
Far from the asphalts and up in the sky, a handful of former German pilots are apparently now in China to provide military training – and are earning huge salaries for their services. Their activities have raised sensitive questions for German security officials. [8][9][10]
In all those confused back and forth, somehow EU also preparing anti-trade war package to protect its industrial and defense sector [11]
China’s premier Li Qiang in Germany appears stressed about derisking : “Recently we did hear some unharmonious voices, such as some people in Europe who floated the question whether economic development should reduce dependency and de-risk,” Li said during a dinner with French and Chinese businessmen and France’s Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire in Paris.
“We think in today’s economic globalization, dependency is a must, and is mutual. You depend on me, and I depend on you,” he said. [12]
— China has been attacking Japan about nuclear-contaminated water dumping plan for some time as the plans start to actually take shape [1]. Turns out China is currently releasing contaminated water with 6.5 times the levels of tritium of the planned Fukushima discharge. For multiple power plants, yearly and over several years. [2]
— China extends ultranationalist patriotic education for internet users, schoolchildren and overseas Chinese. [1]
— With upcoming presidential election in Jan 2024, Taiwan severely targeted with Chinese propaganda. [1]
— Ultranationalistic control freaks : Foreign consulates in Hong Kong were sent a reminder by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs that dual-national detainees are not allowed to receive visits from consular officers, ahead of the third anniversary of the national security law Beijing imposed on the city. [1]
— Chip Wars : The Biden administration plans to allow top semiconductor manufacturers from South Korea and Taiwan to maintain and expand their existing chip-making operations in China without U.S. reprisals, according to recent remarks by a senior Commerce Department official. [1]
European countries should strengthen relations with Taiwan if they want continued Taiwanese investment in semiconductor production, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said during a visit to Europe last week. [2]
Taiwan and South Korea, once tech industry rivals, are joining forces under geopolitical pressure [3]
Tech firms from Taiwan and South Korea are seeking increased cooperation despite still also competing as global exporters of tech hardware
Along with Japan, both are part of the US-led ‘Chip 4’ alliance that aims to strengthen a semiconductor supply chain excluding China amid rising geopolitical tensions
China Is Gearing Up to Evade Chip-Export Rules — As one avenue for China to illicitly acquire high-end dual use technology dries up, watch for others to expand. Beijing’s allies in Tehran and Pyongyang[…], provide contemporary examples of how a nation under international sanctions can use friendly business relations with third countries to evade U.S. sanctions. [4]
U.S. Considers New Curbs on AI Chip Exports to China — Restrictions come amid concerns that China could use AI chips from Nvidia and others for weapon development and hacking [5]
The United States and the Netherlands are set to deliver a one-two punch to China's chipmakers this summer by further restricting sales of chipmaking equipment, part of the countries' ongoing effort to prevent their technology from being used to strengthen China's military. [6]
Hong Kong highlights :
— 5,000 Hong Kong police officers to patrol streets to guard against unauthorised gatherings on anniversary of Tiananmen Square crackdown
Officers will patrol streets, set up roadblocks and conduct stop-and-search checks at ‘high-risk locations’ over weekend, according to sources
Security around Victoria Park, where the annual commemorative candlelight vigil used to take place, will be ramped up, insider says. [1]
— Hong Kong patriotic carnival opens at traditional Tiananmen crackdown vigil venue ahead of anniv.
Banners, leaflets, posters or other political materials are banned, whilst attendees must pay HK$5 by Octopus card and can only enter via a security checkpoint. Armoured police vehicles were spotted near the entrance as participants were warned to obey the security law. [1]
Hong Kong will ‘comply’ with China’s patriotic education requirements under proposed law, leader John Lee says. [2]
— Hong Kong police detained eight people, including activists and artists, on the eve of the 34th anniversary of China’s Tiananmen Square crackdown, a move that signals the city’s shrinking freedom of expression. Hong Kong pollster axes release of Tiananmen anniversary survey results, citing gov’t ‘suggestions’
The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute told HKFP that it was unsure if it would run the survey on the public’s views of the Tiananmen crackdown next year. The annual poll has been conducted since 1993. [1] [2] [3]
“HK independent pollster, HKPORI, with more than 30 years of working history announced today on their website that they “tentatively decided to cancel about 1/4 of our regular survey questions and about 1/3 or the remaining questions will …(not be used) for free releases”.” [4]
— Gov’t seeks to ban protest song ‘Glory to Hong Kong’, including from internet
The melody, lyrics and parodies of the 2019 protest song would also be criminalised along with “[b]roadcasting, performing, printing, publishing, selling” or reproducing it in any way, including online. [5]
— Several pro-democracy activists and journalists intimidated and commanded to “behave” ahead of key dates. [1][2]
Go further with these interesting pieces :
— On China and FDIs : https://twitter.com/dtiffroberts/status/1669113999110320128
— 5G Wars and Huawei espionage : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-15/how-huawei-got-caught-spying-and-lost-a-200-million-5g-contract
— US appeasement strategy : https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-delaying-sanctions-playing-down-chinese-espionage-for-dialogue-rcna89466
— FRS report on China’s security strategy in the Mekong area : https://www.frstrategie.org/publications/recherches-et-documents/proteger-controler-faconner-strategie-securitaire-chine-dans-mekong-2023
— How German quantum research ends up fuelling China’s military complex : https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-quantum-leap-made-in-germany/a-65890662